The Top 5 Luckiest Teams In The Premier League This Season (Based on xPTS)

In today’s post, we will be looking at the clubs that have been overperforming in the Premier League table.

To calculate this, we will be using the metric xPTS. This looks at the expected goals scored and against in every game and then works out what the outcome should have been based on the chances created.

If a team has more points than xPTS, it means they have been luckier in some matches to secure the results they got.

Press the next page as we look at the 5 luckiest clubs in the Premier League this season (using statistics from Understat).

5) Wolves – 7.61 More Points than xPTS

Gary O’Neil’s side are currently sitting ninth in the Premier League with 38 points.

However, based on their performances, the Midlands club should be a lot further down the table, in 14th closer to 30 points.

Rather than a midtable side, they are statistically similar to the likes of Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.

Of course, there is an element of luck in every result; a refereeing decision or a bounce of the ball can decide things but O Neil’s team are clearly overperforming.

4) Liverpool – 8.6 More Points

The Premier League leaders probably shouldn’t be top of the table on the balance of their performances this campaign.

While the Reds currently have 60 points, their xPTS suggest that they should be only third in the table behind Manchester City and Arsenal.

Both the reigning champions and the Gunners are performing much closer to their expected points.

Whether that will mean that Liverpool will begin to slip behind their rivals over the coming weeks, we shall have to wait and see.

3) West Ham – 8.64 More Points

There is a lot of unrest among Hammers fans about the club’s performances this season.

From the outside looking in, that may seem strange considering that David Moyes’ side are currently 8th in the table.

However, when you look at their xPTS figure, you can begin to see why there is so much concern among supporters.

All things being equal, West Ham would only have around 30 points, rather than the 39 they actually have. They should be sitting in 15th.

2) Manchester United – 10.22 More Points

The Red Devils have had a disappointing campaign but it could be even worse if Erik ten Hag’s side hadn’t secured points in games their performances suggest they didn’t deserve.

United should be 11th in the Premier League table if we look purely at xPTS. They have been massively overperforming.

It does raise even more questions about ten Hag’s future at Old Trafford. He has been relying on luck even to get them to 6th place.

Their form needs to improve drastically between now and the end of the season if they are to qualify for the Champions League.

1) Tottenham – 10.3 More Points

Ange Postecoglou has earned a lot of praise since he was appointed Spurs boss at the start of the season.

His teams play an attractive, attacking brand of football that has won him plenty of admirers, but they have left themselves open at the back.

From the looks of things, the rub of the green has gone their way more often than not this campaign.

If they had less luck on their side, Postecoglou’s team could have found themselves as low as 9th in the league table (rather than 5th).