A Look Behind The Numbers At Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United

A Look Behind The Numbers At Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United

United Tighter Under Van Gaal, It’s Mou Joke

Jose Mourinho might be willing to launch a verbal attack at anyone that dares to question his tactics, but throughout his career he’s been less willing to launch similar attacks on the pitch. Of course, we’re not saying Mourinho’s teams have lacked the ability to score goals, but there’s no doubting that he’s a defensively minded coach who likes to keep a tight backline and nick the odd goal.

In fact, if we look through some of his managerial stats, it becomes clear why his teams sit in stark contrast to his tight tongue. During the 2004/2005 season with Chelsea (his first), he was able to achieve a goals conceded per game average of 0.58. That translated into a win percentage of 71.25% when added to Chelsea’s 1.83 goals per game average. A season later the goals conceded stat was up to just 0.63 and in 2006/2007 it was 0.67.


Mourinho’s Defensive Record Isn’t Apparent at United

In more recent seasons this average has flitted between 0.75 and 1.18, but the fact remains that Mourinho is a master at getting teams to close ranks, play as a solid unit and grind out results that way. Now, this season the goals scored vs. goals conceded for Mourinho and Manchester United hasn’t been terrible. After 30 matches, 46 goals for and 24 against is good for a goal difference of 22.

OK, so that’s not going to be good enough to win the Premier League, but 24 against is better than Chelsea (25), better than Manchester City (35) and significantly better than Liverpool (40). Unfortunately, if you follow these odds, you’ll notice that Mourinho’s United aren’t exactly setting the betting markets alight. Heading into the recent showdown with Chelsea, the Manchester club was pitched at 13/8 which was slightly better than the 9/5 odds offered for the visiting side.

Odds Don’t Favour Mourinho’s Tactics

However, if you delved a little deeper into Sun Bets’ odds, the line for “no goal scorer” was 7/1. Given that United hasn’t exactly been banging in goals for fun, this price would suggest that the odds makers don’t exactly have much confidence in Mourinho’s men not letting in at least one goal. In reality, this could be United’s greatest weakness at the moment. When Mourinho made Old Trafford his home, fans expected a tightly knitted side that was able to fend off attacks from the Premier League’s big dogs.

Unfortunately, even though the stats aren’t terrible, they’re still not what they should be. In fact, and this is the proverbial salt in the wound, United’s defensive record was actually better under Louis Van Gaal. In fact, Mourinho’s tactics going forward aren’t that much better than the man United fans love to hate. During the 2015/2016 season, Van Gaal saw his side score just 49 times which was the club’s lowest tally since 2004/2005.

Van Gaal Did It Better

However, on the flipside, the Red Devils actually had one of the best defensive records in the league. 35 goals against was the joint-best alongside Tottenham and 18 clean sheets for David de Gea was good enough for second in the Golden Gloves standings that season. In contrast, United have only 11 clean sheets in 29 games this season. Comparing these figures side-by-side, Van Gaal’s United averaged one clean sheet every 2.11 games, while United under Mourinho are at one clean sheet every 2.64 games.

In some respects this might be splitting hairs, but it does show two things. Firstly, it shows that things may not have been that bad under Van Gaal. Secondly, it shows that United havn’t really improved under “the special one”. Again, if we turn to the betting markets at a site like Sun Bets, the odds of United finishing in the top four are now 3/1. Back in the Alex Ferguson days, this stat would have been enough to have fans causing a riot outside the stadium.

Today, unfortunately for those who support the club, this fact doesn’t seem to cause as much consternation as it once would have. OK, so Van Gaal never really endeared himself to fans, but maybe this season’s stats should serve as a lesson to those who are quick to call for a manager’s head. The reality, right now, is that United were tighter under Van Gaal and that’s certainly “mou” joke. However, if United are ever going to turn things around and recapture their glory days, Mourinho needs to be given the chance that Van Gaal never was.

Guest post, contributed by Daniel Smyth.

Daniel Smyth is a betting writer that’s been around the industry for the best part of a decade. Today, Daniel produces guides, match previews and strategy tips for a range of sites across the sports and betting world.